ESPN simulation has Seattle Seahawks finishing tied for NFL’s worst record

Do you want to simulate seasons to see what potential results you could get? ESPN does!

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) simulated the entire 2021 NFL season a whopping 20,000 times, and the combined results are averaged to give their full predictions. For the Seattle Seahawks, they’re projected to run around a 10-7 campaign, which in an extended playoff should be enough to make the playoffs. They’re one of only nine teams with a greater than 60% chance of playing post-season football, and they’re also 9th for the Super Bowl and winning the Super Bowl.

But for some reason ESPN specifically focused on a scenario that, as they pass for all of their simulations, “gives us a plausible result for the 2021 season”. In the end, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Green Bay Packers and won their first Super Bowl, which seems really plausible. That’s not what you’re here for. You are here for what I wrote in the headline.

Seahawks are falling apart

Coach Pete Carroll and the new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron have tried everything. They tried to “let the soot cook”. They tried to run the ball. They tried everything in between. It does not matter. The Seattle Seahawks failed to regain the magic of their early 2020 offensive, while a questionable pass frenzy and lack of secondary gave them away on defense.

In this simulation, Seattle started the year with a loss … then another loss … and then another. Mid-season, the team was the shock of the league, staring at a 0-8 record. Six of those losses were down one point, although the Seahawks were beaten up by the Steelers in week 6 with a loss of 29 points. When the season passed halfway through, no other team remained without a win.

In other words, the tight gambling fortune that the Seahawks have thrived on for years is finally falling apart and sinking their season prematurely. They’ll eventually finish 5-12 in this simulation that, along with the New York Giants, New York Jets, Houston Texans, and Carolina Panthers, gets the worst grade in the NFL. This would be pretty disastrous as it would also mean the Jets would get two picks in the top 5 due to the Jamal Adams trade.

By the way, the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West and lose the Divisional Round, the Rams get a wildcard spot, but Matthew Stafford’s elusive first playoff win remains out of his reach and the Arizona Cardinals go 6-11 and Far from being the postseason.

If we happen to live in that one specific simulation of 20,000 and it actually comes into play, then there is absolutely no way we won’t see massive organizational and roster changes. I’m assuming these Sims weren’t responsible for injuries, but a healthy Russell Wilson leading a team to only five wins strikes me as highly implausible. Missing the playoffs is not unthinkable, but being at the bottom doesn’t even cross my mind.

But ESPN knew what it was doing when it picked simulation 13,330 to highlight for an article. And it worked! Because we made a story about it.