Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions
the Los Angeles Angels (34-40) host the Seattle Mariners (34-39) Sunday at Angel Stadium for their 3-game series finale. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 pm ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle is on a 5-game winning streak, which includes the first 2 games of this series with the Mariners outscoring the Angels 9-6.
LA has lost 4 of its last 5 games but took 4 of 5 from the Mariners in Seattle last week.
The Angels lead the season series with the Mariners 4-3 and have a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.
Mariners at Angels projected starters
LHP Marco Gonzales vs LHP Jose Suarez
Gonzales is 4-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-2, Tuesday at the Oakland Athletics with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Angels: 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 3 HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 3 starts.
Suarez is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 27 IP over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision in LA’s 3-0 win in Seattle June 18 with 4 1/3-scoreless IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mariners: 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.
Mariners at Angels odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 am ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Angels -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | B: -120)
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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions
prediction
Mariners 6, Angels 4
Moneyline
BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+115) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Angels (-140) in starting and relief pitching and hitting, and there’s a line freeze in the betting market.
Gonzales’ numbers vs the Angels last season were much better than Suarez’s vs the Mariners. Seattle’s bullpen ranks ahead of LA’s in xFIP (3.98-3.75), K/BB rate (3.46-2.86), hard-hit rate, contact rate and swinging-strike rate, according to FanGraphs.
So, Seattle’s lineup outperforms LA’s vs. left-handed pitching in runs per 9 (3.76-3.61), wRC+ (104-93), wOBA (.305-.297) and BB/K rate (0.53-0.38), per FanGraphs .
Finally, more than 90% of the action is on the Angels (per Pregame.com), but their ML hasn’t budgeted off the opener. Common sense suggests oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so this “line freeze” could be the sportsbooks daring bettors to take the Angels.
BET the MARINERS (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASSPORT.
You could argue there’s value in Seattle’s alternate RL, but I’m staying away since the Mariners are just 10-18 RL as favorites. The Angels are 7-2 RL as home underdogs as well.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) Since the total has been steamed up from a 9-run opener by the market, Angel Stadium is more hitter-friendly and the weather conditions forecasted are favorable.
Angel Stadium is 9th in park factor and temperatures are projected to be in the low-90s with a light breeze blowing out to right-center field.
However, I cannot fully get there on the Over since it’s almost “too popular”, LA is 10-18-3 O/U as home favorites, and Seattle’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
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