Pamplin Media Group – The ongoing worker shortage will continue, experts say

Portland Business Alliance told problem began before pandemic and will last for years.

The current worker shortage is a serious economic problem that began before the pandemic and will continue for years after it fades away.

The problem is largely caused by an aging US population and falling birth rates, and will not be solved without comprehensive federal immigration reform.

In Portland, the problem is exacerbated by high housing prices, high personal income taxes, and a national reputation damaged by media coverage of downtown protests.

A reset of Portland’s image could go a long way to attracting more workers, especially downtown.

Those were among the major takeaways from the Portland Business Alliance breakfast forum on Thursday, Oct. 14. It was titled “Where did all the workers go? Unpacking Portland’s labor shortage.” Panelists were: Oregon state economist Christian Kaylor; Swire Coca-Cola Vice President Jeff Deitrick, whose territory includes the Pacific Northwest; and PGE Vice President for Human Resources and Diversity Anne Mersereau.

Kaylor began the presentation with an array of statistics, including the fact that the US working age population essentially stopped growing in 2017. The largest demographic currently is baby boomers, who are now retiring in record numbers and not being replaced by an equal number of younger workers, Kaylor said.

“Almost twice as many people are leaving the workforce as entering it,” Kaylor said, resulting in both record low unemployment and record high job openings.

Deitrick said his and other companies now have two options to stay competitive — retain their existing employees or steal employees from other companies. That requires meeting their existing employees’ changing needs, including allowing them to work remotely when possible, and increasing wages and benefits.

“The lessons I’ve learned are train to retrain, and you have to steal employees,” said Deitrick, who added that many of his Portland employees are now living in Vancouver, Washington, and Salem because housing is more affordable there.

Mersereau said that many PGE employees who live in Vancouver but are assigned to Portland offices are unwilling to cross the Columbia River. Washington does not have a state income tax, but they have to pay Oregon income tax whenever they work in the state. Portland has the highest tax rate in the country for anyone earning over $125,000, at 14.8%.

Deitrick and Mersereau also said Portland’s current reputation is making it difficult to recruit employees. They both said the news coverage of the riots was unfair because they were mostly concentrated in the two-block area around the Mark O. Hatfield US Courthouse. Nevertheless, they repeatedly heard from people who live out of state that the city is “lawless” or “on fire.”

“‘Keep Portland Weird’ is over. We don’t want to be that weird anymore,” Mersereau said to laughter from the packed room of business leaders at the downtown Hilton Hotel.

Deitrick said that with climate change creating droughts that are threatening water supplies to cities in states like Arizona, Nevada and Utah, Portland could promote its still-abundant water.

The panel was moderated by Mari Watanabe, executive director of Partners in Diversity, a nonprofit organization that works with employers to achieve and empowering a workforce that reflects the rapidly changing demographics of the Pacific Northwest.

“Leadership levels must be as diverse as the workforce. Employees must be able to see people who look like them in management position to believe they can achieve that too,” Watanabe said.

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