Mariners Trade Deadline Targets: Starting pitchers who could help Seattle

When Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto joined our station over the last few weeks, he made it clear that he’s in the market for another starting pitcher. And that’s not a slight at the five guys Seattle currently has, either.

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The foursome of Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen has been solid all year long and has been a major reason the Mariners surged over the last month. That group has also made every start of this year as they’ve been remarkably healthy.

The fifth man is rookie George Kirby. The key word there is rookie. The Mariners are doing what they can to conserve Kirby’s workload as he has a limited track record of throwing innings at the pro level.

Currently, the Mariners’ depth behind their current five starters is not great. If one of those five were to go down, that would mean either Matt Brash or Tommy Milone would move over from the bullpen, or Justus Sheffield or Darren McCaughan would be recalled from Triple-A Tacoma.

The Mariners clearly don’t want that to be the case in a stretch run, so expect them to be hitting the phones hard looking for another starter. They may also be seeking one who could help them next year, as well. While Ray, Gilbert, Gonzales and Kirby are all under contract for next year and beyond, Flexen has accumulated enough innings to make his club option for 2023 turn into a player option. He could choose to bet on himself in free agency, leaving at least one of the five spots in the rotation open for 2023 unless Seattle acquires a controllable starter this deadline.

Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle

The Cincinnati Reds are a dumpster fire who are openly tanking and sold off many of their most valuable assets this offseason. Case in point, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez are now members of the Mariners after an offseason deal.

But the Reds also have two very capable starters in Castillo, a 29-year-old two-time All-Star and Mahle, a 27-year-old right hander who has been very solid the last few years. The organization held onto both right hands, but they both could be on the move this deadline.

Both are signed through 2023 and Castillo figures to be the more valuable of the two as he has a 2.77 ERA this year in his second All-Star campaign in 13 starts. He may be the biggest name to be dealt this season unless Juan Soto gets traded by Washington.

Mahle is the younger of the two, and after posting ERAs of 3.59 and 3.75 the last two seasons, he’s at 4.48 through 18 starts and many of his advanced metrics look very good.

Both Castillo and Mahle make plenty of sense for the Mariners because they’re pitching well and are signed through the end of next season.

Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner, Zach Davies, and Merrill Kelly

Like the Reds, the Diamondbacks find themselves in last place in their division. They also have some starting pitching that should interest the Mariners and other playoff contenders.

First things first, Bumgarner. No, the 32-year-old southpaw hasn’t been the same All-Star regular we grew accustomed to in San Francisco since signing with Arizona, but he’s a proven arm who has been a solid starter this season, posting a 3.71 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings across 20 starts. He’s also arguably the best postseason pitcher of all time and is signed through 2024. A hurdle, though, is that Bumgarner is set to make $37 million between the next two seasons.

Davies, 29, has made just 15 starts this year, but he appears to be closer to his 2020 form than his 2021 form. Two seasons ago, Davies had a 2.73 ERA and 3.88 FIP. Last year, his ERA was 5.78 and his FIP was 5.45. In 2022, Davies has a 3.94 ERA and 4.25 FIP. His hits and walks per nine innings are around and below his career averages. Davies isn’t a sexy name by any means, but he is a solid back-end arm that could help in terms of managing Kirby’s workload or filling in if someone gets hurt. Davies is on the IL right now with a shoulder injury, but is nearing a return. He’s a free agent after this season.

Kelly, 33, has posted a 3.29 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 110 1/3 innings (19 starts). Like Davies, Kelly is a low strikeout guy, but he’s allowed only seven homers this year and has a fairly low walk rate. Kelly is only in his fourth MLB season despite being 33, but he, like Flexen, shined in Korea before finding success in the big leagues. He’s signed through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

Colorado’s German Marquez and Chad Kuhl

German Márquez has been a great pitcher for the Rockies for most of his career, but the right hander, who has been the subject of trade rumors for a few years now, has struggled in 2022 with a 5.47 ERA and 4.87 FIP while allowing a career high in home runs per nine and tying his career high in hits and walks per nine. He’s also averaging a career low in strikeouts per nine.

But Márquez has a proven track record while making half his starts at hitter friendly Coors Field, is 27 years old and is signed through 2023 with a club option for 2024. He could be a player that fits the Mariners not just for the end of this season if the 2021 All-Star can turn things around but also for the next year or two, also.

As for Chad Kuhl, the 29 year old has put up his usual numbers in his first season with the Rockies, posting a 4.48 ERA and 4.59 FIP while pitching to contact. Kuhl started the year pitching very well, but his numbers have risen up thanks to a poor July in which he has a 9.00 ERA in four starts. He’s a free agent after this year.

Oakland’s Frankie Montas and Paul Blackburn

The A’s made it clear they were aiming to go through some bad years this past offseason when they traded a number of key players, such as star first baseman Matt Olson and star third baseman Matt Chapman as well as All-Star lefty Sean Manea.

Oakland’s fire sale is expected to continue at the deadline, and the team has a number of pitchers who will likely be wearing new uniforms come Aug. 3.

Two of those arms are starters in Frankie Montas, who finished sixth in Cy Young voting last year, and Paul Blackburn, an All-Star this year.

Montas has been on the trading block since Oakland’s fire sale began this offseason. He’s pitched well despite the noise, posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 18 starts with 105 strikeouts. After an injury scare against the Mariners at the beginning of this month, the talented right hander returned over the weekend, throwing three scoreless innings against the Tigers.

Montas, 29, is also signed through 2023, so he would help a contending team not just this season, but next year as well.

Blackburn, 28, has made 19 starts this season and has a 4.35 ERA and 3.93 FIP over 101 1/3 innings. In addition to throwing against them regularly since 2017, the Mariners know Blackburn well as he was part of the organization in the second half of 2016 before being traded that following offseason. Blackburn is under club control through 2025, so he may cost more than you’d think when looking at his season numbers and career totals.

Pittsburgh’s Jose Quintana

The Mariners traded for a veteran southpaw from the Pirates last deadline and it worked out well. What about doing that again?

Last year, the Mariners added Tyler Anderson to stabilize the rotation. He did that in a big way making 13 starts for Seattle down the stretch.

Quintana, 33, has a 3.70 ERA and 3.27 FIP for Pittsburgh this year in 19 starts and spent most of the last two years as a reliever. That could make him a good target for the Mariners as he has the ability to both work out of the pen or make starts in the rotation. Both could be important due to Kirby’s workload questions as well as the potential for an injury to any one of Seattle’s current five starters.

Quintana is on the final year of his deal, so he would likely be a rental for this season only, just like Anderson last year.

Kansas City’s Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke, 38, returned to his first franchise in the Royals this past offseason and has been a decent starter, posting a 4.64 ERA with a 4.58 FIP. He’s missing barely any bats (4.9 strikeouts per nine) and allowing over 10 hits per nine innings, but him being a big name and having playoff experience will have him potentially on the move this deadline.

Does the 19-year veteran make a lot of sense for the Mariners? Not at this moment, no. But again, there’s still plenty of time between now and the deadline for something to go wrong and the team needing even more starting pitching. The Mariners also know Greinke very well (18 career starts against them), which could make him an intriguing option since they know what they’re getting.

Additionally, Dipoto has traded for Greinke before acquiring him in 2012 while with the Angels from Milwaukee.

Detroit’s Michael Pineda

Hello, old friend!

Michael Pineda, a rookie All-Star for the Mariners way back in 2011, is now 33 years old and pitching for the disappointing Tigers.

Pineda hasn’t done too well this year with a 5.27 ERA and 5.84 FIP, but he’s expected to move as a buy-low option this deadline as Detroit is in last place in the AL Central and has a plethora of young arms at or nearing the big league level.

Pineda has not pitched well in 2022, but he had a 3.62 ERA and 4.21 FIP last year and a 4.01 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 2019, so there’s some recent success.

I don’t think the Mariners would go this way given his poor 2022 performance and that he’s on an expiring contract, but if something comes up between now and the Aug. 2 deadline, he would be someone who shouldn’t cost the team much in all terms of prospects.

Los Angeles’ Noah Syndergaard

I think the slumping Angels trade Noah Syndergaard, but I don’t think they’ll make a trade with a division rival like Seattle unless the M’s make an extremely good offer.

But that wouldn’t make too much sense for Seattle given Syndergaard is making $21 million this year and has made just 14 starts this year.

The 29 year old has been solid when healthy, posting a 4.00 ERA, 4.07 FIP and allowing just over eight hits per nine innings, but he’s not missing many bats (seven strikeouts per nine).

Someone will swoop up Syndergaard – especially if the Angels eat some money to facilitate a deal – but I don’t see it being the Mariners.

surprises

I’m not going to list any names here, but during every trade deadline and offseason, there seems to be at least a few players who get dealt that no one was really expecting. Heck, I don’t think anyone anticipated the Mariners landing Winker and Suárez prior to the season starting.

As such, the Mariners could pull off a surprise deal for a starting pitcher that isn’t on most people’s radars. Even with graduations of Julio Rodríguez, George Kirby and Matt Brash, the team still has enough talent in the farm and in other places like the bullpen to get something notable done.

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