Could a La Niña bring a snowy winter to Spokane? There is a strong chance

The chance of a La Niña winter in Spokane is 70-80%, which could provide a drought-stricken region with cold and snowy weather.

Earlier this month, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center released its best forecast for the coming winter for the northern hemisphere.

A la niña occurs when winds are stronger than usual and push warm seawater towards Asia, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface along the west coast of North America, according to the National Ocean Service.

This cold water drives the jet stream north, bringing heavy rainfall, cooler temperatures, and potential flooding to the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

With Spokane and much of east Washington experiencing extreme droughts, a La Niña winter could bring much-needed rainfall to the region, said Jeremy Wolf, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Spokane.

“There are certain patterns that develop during La Niña and we are usually under a northwestern storm track, so this tends to bring cooler, wetter systems to the area,” Wolf said.

But that’s a big if, because every La Niña is different, he said.

“With the drought there are better chances of recovery, as the storm track is more geared towards our region,” said Wolf. “But it’s definitely not a guarantee.”

Average rainfall for the year to date is 10.52 inches in Spokane. But as of 2021, Spokane has had 5.71 inches of rainfall so far.

La Niñas often come in pairs, said Wolf. The last time this couple was in the winters 2016-17 and 2017-18. There have been 23 La Niñas in the past 70 years, Wolf added.

Each La Niña is built a little differently, he said, so it’s difficult to know how this will affect Spokane. The system usually starts in the second half of winter, said Wolf, but “sometimes the pattern comes up earlier.”

The system could only bring a larger blanket of snow in the mountains of the region, which is noticeable during the spring melt. Or it could also bring rain and snow straight into the valleys, said Wolf.

As winter approaches, the predictions will become more accurate and detailed, he said.

“It’s just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to predicting winter,” says Wolf.

For local winter sports enthusiasts, however, a La Niña brings back memories of good conditions.

“La Niña just means a great year of skiing,” said Jodie Kayler, assistant general manager at Mt. Spokane.

A good snow base in December is a great base to build on for the rest of the season, she said.

“Just makes us excited,” said Kayler. “We’re ready to roll.”