On the eve of celebrations to welcome in this New Year in Ukraine, Russia has launched one of its most powerful missile strikes of the war on energy infrastructure. After dawn an explosion echoing through cities and towns throughout the nation as the 69 cruise missiles as well as armed drones were launched at civilian targets. Kyiv said was one of the largest days of air strikes since the Kremlin began a campaign to attack Ukraine’s electric, water and heating system, that as temperatures began to drop with the onset of winter have centered on the power grid. Thursday’s attacks were the 10th big-scale attack against the power grid of Ukraine since September.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has employed the method to diminish the motivation to fight among the civilian population by casting civilians in darkness and freezing at sub-zero temperature as the war is entering the 10th month of its existence. According to Kyiv military, air defense units from the Ukrainian military have destroyed 54 of the cruise missiles fired from Russian forces. However, the latest wave of attacks left the majority of the city of Lviv in western Ukraine not having electricity in accordance with local authorities in addition to water supply being seriously hit. In Kyiv the city, 40 percent of residential buildings were left without electric power, Kyiv’s mayor the capital, Vitali Klitschko, said.

A Ukrainian anti-aircraft ballistic missile landed on Belarusian territory, according to BelTA the Belarusian state-owned news agency, which added there was no report of any casualties. It is believed that the Belarusian Defense Ministry is investigating whether it was shot down by its own defence systems for air or whether it missed its intended target.

As dawn broke over Kiev as the sun rose, the sound of missiles and grey trails flew across the sky. Sirens from air raids had previously issued a warning to the capital, like the whole country in general, was on the alert for a missile attack. At the time of Thursday’s attack, sixteen projectiles launched by Moscow focused on the Ukrainian capital, all were intercepted by anti-aircraft defenses, according to the Kyiv officials. The shell fragments however struck two houses, a children’s playground , and a factory which injured three people, including a 14-year-old According to the mayor’s office.

Russian strikes have also damaged infrastructure that was damaged in Odesa, a port town Odesa and the cities of the north in Zhytomyr as well as Kharkiv. Several buildings, even a power line and gas pipeline were destroyed in shelling on the outskirts of the central city of southern Zaporizhzhia in the words of the regional governor, Oleksandr Staruj. In Kherson that was freed from the hands of Ukrainian military in October and was the subject of heavy shelling over the past few days, an attack on a medical clinic, according local officials, injuring two persons. “They imagine that Ukrainians can celebrate their New Year in darkness and frigid temperatures. But they will never be able defeat the Ukrainian people,” Kyiv’s Defense Ministry said on social media.

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A power plant in Kyiv is burning after the drone strike on December 19 2022. A power plant in Kyiv burns after the drone strike on December 19th 2022. 
SERGEI SUPINSKY (AFP) 
The most recent round of air strike was carried out by at least two warships and 13 strategic bombers carrying cruise missiles According to Ukrainian Air Force. Before the missiles began to drop, Moscow sent waves of Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones. These are used by Russian forces to try to deter Ukrainian air defense units ahead of subsequent missile strikes. A squadron of thirteen drones was sent against Kharkiv eleven of which were taken down, according local officials. In Dnipro an important city located in central country and a logistics and communication hub the drones fell just before missiles were fired. The Ukrainian Army’s Southern Command reports that three Russian missile-carrying warships have taken up combat positions in the Black Sea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned days ago that Russia planned large-scale military strikes over the course of the Christmas holiday. “With the approaching holiday season, Russian terrorists may become active again,” he stated. “They despise Christian values and any values in general.”

The strikes on Thursday came just days after an air strike against the Russian strategic bomber’s base at the base from which Moscow has carried out raids against critical Ukrainian infrastructure. At least three Russian troops were wounded during an attack which revealed flaws in Moscow’s anti-aircraft defences. It was the second time a drone has attacked within the Engels airbase that is located in the Saratov area, which is many miles away from the Ukrainian border. Similar to what it did after previous attacks on bases in Russian territorial waters, the Ukrainian government used cryptic language, falling short of attributing these strikes to the country’s own military while also declaring that they were a direct consequence of the Russian war.

Since November 2020, there has been an ongoing conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. This conflict has caused an extremely dire humanitarian crisis that is often referred to as a genocide. To comprehend this situation more clearly it is important to look at the past of the region, how it affects the population who live there, and how we can help.

History of Conflict in Tigray The conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray has been going on for centuries and has been entangled with culture, religion, and politics. The most recent time of tensions began in 1991, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) declared independence from Ethiopia after overthrowing its military-ruled government. In response, Ethiopian forces invaded Tigray and enforced martial law on the citizens. This period of tension culminated in an armed war between TPLF forces and Ethiopian troops in 1998. The conflict resulted in thousands of deaths as well as millions of refugees fleeing their homes.

Impact on People Living in Tigray 
The ongoing violence has taken a huge cost to the people in Tigray. As per reports by international aid organizations, over two million people are displaced by the fighting while hundreds more have been killed or injured by air strikes or other types of violence. In addition, reports suggest that many civilians have been targeted for ethnic cleansing based on their religion or political beliefs. There are also food shortages that are widespread since crops haven’t been capable of being grown or harvested due to the conflict. 

The Bureau first covered Facebook’s failure to moderate hate speech and misinformation about the conflict in Ethiopia in February of this year

How Can We Help? There are many ways to help those affected by this tragedy. The most effective way is by making donations to international aid organizations such as Doctors Without Borders who are providing medical care and food aids to those affected by the conflict. Additionally, raising awareness about this issue is vital to ensure that governments all over the world will engage in a legal process against those who commit these human rights violations. In the end, we need to urge our elected officials to take concrete steps to end this conflict in the end by engaging diplomatically with the leaders from both sides of the conflict. 
Conclusion The ongoing tragedy in Ethiopia’s Tigray region should not be ignored or forgotten anytime soon. It is vital to continue to raise awareness about this issue in order that we can exert pressure on governments all over the world to take swift and decisive action against those who perpetuate the violence against innocent civilians. Furthermore, it is crucial to give whatever funds we can spare to ensure aid organizations can be able to provide essential medical treatment and food aid to those affected by the current crisis. Only then will justice be served for all parties affected by this tragic human rights issue.

Read more Meta sued for hate speech facilitating genocide in Tigray conflict. Similar Facebook accused of inciting leading to targeted assasinations in Tigray conflict.

Russian forces carried out huge missile attacks across Ukraine on the 2nd time in a row on the 11th of October. On October 11, the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces fired nearly 30 Kh-101 as well as Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers and damaged infrastructure critical to Lviv, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia Oblasts. 1. Ukrainian air defense has reportedly has destroyed 21 cruise missiles as well as 11 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 2. Social media videos demonstrate the aftermath of strikes throughout Ukraine. [3] Russian forces additionally continued to launch attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. 4 According to the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed eight Shahed-136 drones in Mykolaiv Oblast on the night between October 10 and 11. [5]

Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as the commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria likely does not explain the massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days or signal any shift in the direction of Russian capabilities or its strategy in Ukraine. The Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative, Andriy Yusov, linked the recent strike to Surovikin’s appointment as theatre commander and stated on the 11th of October the fact that “throwing rockets at civilian infrastructure objects” is in line with the tactics of Surovikin in Syria. Surovikin’s tactics in Syria are not. Surovikin has been within Ukraine (as the Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and then the Southern Grouping in Russian troops) since the beginning of the war, as have many senior Russian commanders who are also associated with Russian operations in Syria. 7. Major General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov, who was appointed in April for the post that Surovikin now holds, similarly had the command of Russian forces in Syria between 2015 and 2016 and was famous for his deliberate and brutally attacking civilians. 8 Colonel General Aleksandr Chayko, the former commander of the Eastern Military District who took an active part in the initial stages of the conflict in Ukraine was also the Chief of Staff for Russian forces in Syria until the end of 2015 and 2016. [9] As ISW stated in April, every one of the Russian military district or airborne commanders served at least one mission in Syria as either the chief of staff or commander of Russian forces. Russian forces deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure , including food and medical facilities throughout the duration of Russia’s active involvement in the war. In the 10th century, disregard of international law, and an enthralling enthusiasm for committing a brutal attack on civilians was standard operating procedure for Russian forces in Syria before, during, and after the rule of Surovikin. It is now part of the Russian way of war.

Surovikin’s appointment will not result in a further “Syrianization” of Russian operations in Ukraine since the battlespace in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the battlespace in Syria and direct comparisons with Surovikin’s Syrian “playbook” obfuscate the reality that Russia has its own unique challenges in Ukraine. Russia cannot more “Syrianize” the war largely due to its inability attain air supremacy, which precludes its ability to carry out the same massive carpet-bombing campaigns across Ukraine that it was able to have conducted in Syria. ISW has previously analyzed it is likely that Russian actions in the air would have been markedly different if conducted in contested airspace or a more demanding air defense environment, such as is the scenario in Ukraine. 11] It is extremely unlikely that the role of Surovikin as commander of the theatre will trigger fundamental changes of Russian activities in the air or missile field of Ukraine as long as Ukraine’s Western supporters continue to provide Kyiv with air defences needed to stop Russia from developing air superiority.

Russian military officials could instead have coordinated Surovikin’s appointment and the October 10 cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure to rehabilitate the image from that of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Whoever was appointed as theater commander was responsible for the October 10 cruise missile strikes, which Ukrainian intelligence reported had been planned as early as October 2 (and which Surovikin certainly did not prepare, plan for, and take part in prior to his appointment). [1212 Russian milbloggers have been lauding the huge wave of strikes on October 10 and Surovikin’s selection and linked the two as positive developments for Russian activities in Ukraine. This may be in line with ongoing Russian information-related operations to restore the image for Central Military District Command Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin following Russian failures in the area of Lyman as part of a wider strategy to improve the public’s perception about and support for the Russian militarists. The Russian MoD is clearly invested in repairing its public image, and the informational consequences of the October 10 missile strikes and the appointment of Surovikin who is a hero within the extremist nationalist Russian information space, are likely intended to cater to the most vocal voices within that space.

The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other items from Belarusian storage bases–activity that is not compatible with setting the conditions for a massive Russian or Belarusian military strike against Ukraine in Belarus. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 11 that a train carrying 492 tons of ammunition from the Belarusian 43rd Missile and Ammunition Storage Arsenal in Gomel arrived at the Kirovskaya Railway Station in Crimea on an unspecified recent time. [13] The GUR reported that Belarusian officials plan to send an additional 13 trains with weapons, equipment, ammunition, and other unspecified materiel from five different Belarusian bases to the Kamenska (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky) and Marchevo (Taganrog) railway stations in Rostov Oblast on an unspecified future date. Open-source social media footage supports this story. Geolocated footage shows that at the very least, two Belarusian trains carrying Belarusian T-72 tanks and Ural military trucks in Minsk and Tor-M2 surface-to air missile launchers located in Orsha (Vitebsk Oblast) on October 11. 14 Belarusian equipment movements to Russia show that Russian and Belarusian forces likely are not creating assembly zones in Belarus. Belarusian equipment and supply movements into Crimea and Rostov Oblast indicate the fact that Russian forces are less certain regarding the security of Russian ground lines of communication that run through the western and northern regions of Luhansk Oblast, given the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive there. The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated that it monitors Belarus and hasn’t observed evidence of the formation of offensive groups in Belarus on October 11. [15] Russian and or Belarusian forces are unlikely to strike Ukraine from Belarus in the manner that ISW has previously assessed. [16]

Belarus remains a co-belligerent partner in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, nonetheless. Belarus materially supports Russian military operations in Ukraine and provides Russian forces with havens from which to strike Ukraine using precise munitions. Russian forces attacked Kyiv with Shahed-136 drones which were launched from Belarusian territory on October 10. 17] The GUR further stated that Russia had deployed 32 drones from the Shahed-136 series to Belarus at the time of October 10 in addition to stating that Russia will send eight drones to Belarus by October 14. [18]

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched massive missile strikes throughout Ukraine on the 2nd day in row.
• Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria is not likely to be related to the huge wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days. Neither does it suggest a shift in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy in Ukraine.
• HTML0 The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the idea of Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground strike on Ukraine by importing material from Belarus.
• HTML0Russian sources said that Ukrainian forces were continuing to carry out counteroffensives to the east along the Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove.
• HTML0 Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops carried out ground assaults in northern and western Kherson Oblast.
• HTML0Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to take on Russian military technical, logistical and logistics assets and areas of concentration located in Kherson Oblast.
• HTML0Russian military forces continue to carry out ground attacks throughout Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian reports of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, indicated panic over losing further logistical capabilities in Crimea in the wake of incident with the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.
• Russian Federal subjects are announcing new extensions and phases of mobilization in selected regions, which could mean that they are not meeting their mobilization requirements.
• Russian and occupation administration officials continue to carry out filtration operations within Russian-occupied territory.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Ukrainian Counteroffensives—Southern and Eastern Ukraine
• Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations east of the Oskil River in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove on October 11. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces near Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast (20km northwest of Svatove) and Stel’makhivka in Luhansk Oblast (15km northwest of Svatove).[19] The Russian MoD also claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Zherebets River southwest of Svatove in the direction of Raihorodka and Novovodiane, Luhansk Oblast, on October 11.[20] [21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are regrouping and restoring combat capabilities near Kupyansk to prepare for assaults near the Pershotravneve-Kyslivka line.[22] The milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces are concentrating personnel and equipment in the Lyman-Svatove direction to launch an offensive on Svatove and Kreminna with a strike group of up to 40,000 personnel.[23]  ISW makes no effort to forecast Ukrainian operations or to evaluate the likelihood of Russian forecasts about them.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a local counterattack and recaptured territories west of Kreminna while continuing to establish defensive positions in the Kreminna-Svatove area on October 11. Russian milbloggers claimed on October 11 that Russian forces conducted counteroffensive operations east of Lyman and recaptured Terny, Torske, Novosadove, Makiivka, and Nevske, although ISW cannot independently verify any of these claims.[24] Russian sources posted videos on October 11 purporting to show Russian forces constructing trenches with BTM-3 entrenching machines along the Svatove-Kreminna line, with one source dubbing the effort a Russian-made “Maginot” line (referring to the massive belt of French fortifications built between the two world wars that the Germans simply drove around).[25] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also reported that Russian forces are continuing to mine territory in Luhansk Oblast to slow Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted routine indirect fire along the Oskil River-Kreminna line on October 11.[27]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast on October 11. The Russian MoD claimed that two Ukrainian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) conducted offensive operations in the direction of Borozenske and Piatykhatky—both along the current Davydiv Brid-Dudchany frontline in northern Kherson Oblast and about 35km from the critical Russian-controlled town of Beryslav.[28] A Russian milblogger similarly indicated that Ukrainian troops are preparing to advance south of the Davydiv Brid-Dudchany line and conducting artillery preparations for subsequent attacks on Russian positions in the direction of Beryslav.[29] Russian milbloggers additionally indicated that Ukrainian troops are attempting to reinforce positions in the Davydiv Brid area (western Kherson Oblast near the Mykolaiv Oblast border and along the Inhulets River) to prepare for advances to the southeast.[30] Several Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops attempted to attack toward Bruskynske (6km south of Davyvid Brid), Ishchenka (8km southeast of Davydiv Brid), and Sadok (12km southeast of Davydiv Brid).[31] ISW offers no evaluation of these Russian claims regarding likely future Ukrainian operations or force groupings.

Ukrainian military officials largely maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast but reiterated that Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas.[32] Geolocated social media footage posted October 11 shows the aftermath of October 10 Ukrainian strikes on a medical college dormitory in Beryslav that Russian forces were reportedly using as quarters.[33] Imagery posted on October 11 additionally shows damage to the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson City following a Ukrainian HIMARS strike.[34] Geolocated footage shows a Ukrainian RAM II loitering munition striking a Russian Osa air defense system near Kyselivka, 17km northwest of Kherson City.[35]

Sourcing Huge Russian missile strikes have no impact on the Ukraine frontline. Further reporting Huge Russian missile strikes are having no impact on the Ukraine frontline.